Following the recent national election, in which we had the largest voter turnout in history, and the largest percentage of eligible voters participating in 120 years, there is now a widespread movement to restrict voting rights and access.  According to the Brennan Center for Justice, more than 250 pieces of legislation have been initiated seeking to restrict voting rights and access in 45 states.   

The election results pointed to a split decision, with gains for both the Democratic and Republican parties.  Notwithstanding the massive effort to curb rights, polling on the issue shows widespread grassroots support among all voters for ensuring fair and equal access to voting.  As the issue has been brewing, I’ve been wondering what the push to curb voting rights might mean for the Jewish community. I decided to dig into some numbers. 

I looked at two different sets of overlapping information. First, I looked at the estimated Jewish population in US states which had split decisions in the 2020 elections. These are states where both parties control key positions (governor seats, US Senate seats, state house control), and which are seeing the introduction of restrictive voting laws in 2021. 

That had me also wondering what was happening regarding voting restrictions in the fastest growing metropolitan areas across the country.  The 20 fastest growing metropolitan areas are spread across 12 states, but unevenly so.  Five are in Texas and four in Florida, and none of them in the areas with the largest centers of Jewish population (Greater NY, California, South Florida, etc…).  They are all in states where there are already new legislative efforts to make it harder to vote, although not all of those efforts will succeed. 

Looking at the first intersecting pieces of data, after the 2020 election there were five states with significant Jewish populations (I’ll define that as greater than 100,000) where power is split between the Republican and Democratic parties. For purposes of this analysis, I defined “power” as holding the Governor’s seat, one or both US Senate seats, and the Senate Senate.  These states are Arizona, Georgia, Maryland, Ohio and Pennsylvania.  Georgia, of course, shifted to this status only in January with the unusual double US Senate runoff election in which both seats flipped blue.  Changing demographics in Georgia likely point to a more “purple” future.  You might define Ohio as an outlier on this list, as US Senator Sherrod Brown continues to maintain his seat in a state that has otherwise turned pretty consistently red. 

The combined population of these states, taking into account the portion of the Washington, DC community that lives and votes in Maryland, is about 900,000 (based on a population analysis of Jewish Federation catchment areas prepared by Jewish Federations of North America in 2018).   

Four of these states, all but Ohio, already have new proposed legislation aiming to restrict voting rights and access.  These include measures that restrict voting by mail, or provide onerous requirements of proof for voter registration or for enabling a vote-by-mail, or otherwise aim to shrink the pool of people who actually get to vote or have their votes counted.  Not shockingly, the measures aim to curtail voting of largely urban populations with large minority populations that tend to vote for Democratic candidates. These urban areas are also generally where most of the Jews in these states live. 

Almost every state where the Republican Party hold all the positions I defined are also seeking to enact more restrictive voting laws.  The effort there is about holding the power over who ultimately controls Electoral College votes, state redistricting processes, and validation of election results.   

The second intersection, between the fastest growing metropolitan areas and what is happening on the voting rights front, there also a concerning picture.  Even pre-pandemic there was a significant migration from large urban areas, particularly northeastern and midwestern cities, to newer areas in the south and west.  That isn’t new and it accelerated as some urban areas became simply too pricy for some to justify, or people sought out states with lower taxes, or as retirees sought to stretch the value of their retirement funds and/or escape harsher climates. 

It appears the pandemic has fueled that trend. While there isn’t meaningful data yet, newspapers are replete with stories about cities losing population. People are realizing they can work from anywhere, and can have a better quality of life for their families outside of congested and high priced cities. We can’t know yet whether COVID-related population movement will be permanent. There will always be strong reasons – economic and cultural – that draw people back to cities.  Meanwhile, the growth continues in established and emerging metropolitan areas in the south and west. 

Even before the 2020 election pundits were proclaiming that changing demographics would start shifting states from red to purple.  At least in terms of the presidential election that appears true (Arizona and Nevada went blue; Georgia came very close to going blue).  Down-ballot, that speculation didn’t bear out.  Texas, with five of the fast-growing metropolitan areas, where Beto O’Rourke mounted a credible challenge to Senator Ted Cruz two years ago, wasn’t anywhere near as close in the presidential election as some expected. 

If demographic shifts continue to push more population, including Jewish population, out of solid blue states to red and purple states, as states make it harder for people in urban areas to vote, what kind of electoral future faces the Jewish community looking at?  Potentially one with a lot less influence. 

1. Major urban centers where Jews play significant roles in electoral politics are losing population, which translates into lower representation in state houses and the US House of Representatives. 

1. Republican control over most state redistricting processes will result in ever more “creatively” crafted districts that continue to diminish the impact of large urban populations on the balance of power. 

1. Jews in “purple” states, who still disproportionately lean Democratic, will increasingly find themselves in the awkward lobbying position of seeking assistance and influence from public officials they didn’t support. 

1. Jews in “red” states are already living in a political reality where they struggle with limited ability to influence public policy. These communities are gaining Jewish population, but may not gain concomitant influence. 

What is at stake?  A lot. The organized Jewish community, with its extensive network of communal institutions that serve the Jewish community and provide nonsectarian services, depends on public funding and public policies for its well-being.  Health care financing sustains our nursing homes and other health and social service agencies.  Homeland security funding provides increasingly needed safety resources.  Holocaust survivors receive critical tailored services to address their trauma-affected situations.  Tax policies affect the charitable giving that lies at the core of sustaining our communal infrastructure.  And much more. 

Our political system, media ecosystem, and our communities have become more politically polarized. Jewish organizations are challenged to figure out how to navigate the political minefield of addressing fundamental policy issues that affect the health of American democracy and society without losing support.  The risks are real as some donors may threaten or act to withhold support.  But the risk of inaction may be greater in the long-term.